Ten Optimistic Trends

Ten Optimistic Trends – Part 3

ByFreeman Linde, CFP®
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This is the last installment of Optimistic Trends. See Episode 121 for the beginning.

9 – The Long Peace

In 1946, there were about 50 countries. Today, there are about 200. As decolonization and striving for independence have quadrupled the number of sovereign countries, one would expect that wars and military conflicts between countries would steadily increase over the same time. But that’s not what we see.

Despite our short-term memory fixating on Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, the number of interstate wars worldwide has decreased since the end of World War II. The rate at which those wars are decreasing also seems to be improving.

This is mainly due to how intertwined countries have become in their economic and wealth-building pursuits. Armed conflict is bad for everyone. Countries that are furthest behind economically are largely those that have been torn apart by internal violence. And aggression across borders is destructive to the pursuit of prosperity.

Countries have realized that we will all get ahead better and faster if we can all get along. The decline of wars is an inarguable positive.

10 – A Safer World

Over the last one hundred years, the chances of someone dying in a natural disaster have decreased by almost 99%.

Technological advancements in infrastructure and early warning systems have allowed us to survive, avoid, and evade more natural disasters.

The largest disasters over the last two decades have occurred in the developing world.

  • 2004: The Indian Ocean Tsunami killed 230,000 people.
  • 2010: The Haitian Earthquake killed 223,000 people.
  • 2008: Cyclone Nargis, a Category 4 Storm in Myanmar, killed 138,000 people.

Here’s a comparison illustrating just how good our technology has become at helping us avoid death by natural disasters. Take another look at the last example above. Now consider this:

  • 2010: Cyclone Yasi, a Category 5 Storm in Australia, killed 0 people.

Natural disasters still kill many people for no other reason than there are more of us. But the deaths per 100,000 have dropped precipitously. The Great Enrichment will eventually help pull the developing world into the middle class, and the same technological advancements that keep countries like the U.S. and Australia safe will also be widely deployed in these countries.

We look forward to an ever safer world.

Optimistic Trend 10 - A Safer World

The book is called “Ten Global Trends,” but its subtitle is “And Many Others You Will Find Interesting.” Indeed, it contains seventy-eight trends that are all very encouraging.

I’ll list them here, and you can explore the ones you want by buying the book. The authors separate them into categories. Here are the rest of the trends the authors included. I will not comment on them; many will have asterisks on them for some people or raise questions about adverse side effects. But on the whole, these are significant trends.

  1. Life Options are Expanding
  2. Global Happiness is Rising
  3. Global Income is Rising
  4. Global Income Inequality is Falling
  5. The Percentage of People Living in Slums is declining
  6. The Number and Percentage of Women in Political Leadership is Increasing
  7. Births Per Woman are Decreasing
  8. Global Literacy rates are Approaching 100%
  9. More Kids are Going to School
  10. Kids are Going to School Longer
  11. IQ Scores are Massively Rising
  12. More and More Countries are Decriminalizing LGBTQ
  13. There is a General (though not perfect) Increase in Free Press
  14. Life Expectancy is Rising
  1. Global Death Rate is Falling
  2. Vastly Fewer Children Die Young (140 per 1,000 in 1950; 29 in 2017)
  3. Mothers are Living Longer
  4. Vaccines are Saving Lives
  5. We are Overcoming HIV/AIDS
  6. We are Trouncing Tuberculosis
  7. Malaria is Retreating
  8. We are Winning the War on Cancer
  9. Tobacco Usage is Declining
  10. Vaccine Discoveries are Accelerating
  1. Global Murder Rate is Falling
  2. Capital Punishment is Declining
  3. Battle Death Rate is Declining
  4. Genocides are Disappearing
  5. Military Spending Ratio is Falling
  6. Armies as a Percentage of the Population are Shrinking
  7. Nuclear Arsenals Dwindle
  1. We are Working Less for More Income
  2. Work is Getting Safer
  3. Children Labor Less
  4. The Nature of Work is Changing
  5. The Wage Gap Between Men and Women is Narrowing
  6. Emancipation is Universal
  1. We’ve Reached Peak Farmland (It should retreat from here)
  2. We’re Conserving More Land and Sea
  3. Global CO2 Emissions per GDP Dollar are Decreasing
  4. There are No Peak Oil Reserves in Sight
  5. Known Natural Gas Reserves are Increasing
  6. We are Using Water More Efficiently
  7. We are Producing More with Less (Materials, Energy, etc.)
  1. Hunger is Retreating (The Global Undernourishment Rate is Declining)
  2. Global Grain Production is increasing
  3. Yields are Increasing
  4. We are Farming and Eating more Fish
  5. Our Protein Consumption is Increasing
  1. Global Access to Electricity is Increasing
  2. Lighting Costs Nearly Nothing
  3. Solar Power is Getting Cheaper
  4. Clean Drinking Water Access is Improving
  5. Sanitation is Improving
  6. Mobile Phone Usage is Increasing
  7. Global Access to the Internet is Increasing
  8. Computer Processing Power is Exponential Cheaper
  9. Global Tourism (was) Rising (Pre-Pandemic)
  10. Tariffs are Falling
  1. Share of Spending on Household Basics is Declining
  2. Cost and Adoption of New Technologies are Improving
  3. Violent Crime Rates are Falling Steeply
  4. Racist Attitudes are Declining
  5. Air Pollution is Falling Steeply
  6. We are Getting Bigger and Better Houses
  7. Vaccines are Rising, and Infections Diseases are Plunging
  8. Air Travel is Getting Cheaper
  9. Cancer Incidence and Death Rates are Improving

Across the spectrum, the world is heading in the right direction. That is not to say there are no hiccups or that you can’t find a few statistics that trend in the wrong direction. But this proves that we can fix problems that arise through human ingenuity.

In a world where everything is negative, I hope that has encouraged you to see how many things are going in the right direction.

Many of these advances have been spearheaded by the best businesses in the world, or those same businesses have taken advantage of them for additional benefit and gain. As we move into an uncertain future, will you participate in those advancements? Or are you going to stay on the sidelines? It’s your choice.

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